Trump Leads Harris on Polymarket After Musk Endorsement, but Trails in This Key State

• Trump has widened his gap over Harris on Polymarket after an endorsement from Musk.
• However, he still trails in Nevada, one of the key states that have historically predicted the outcome.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is leading Democratic rival Kamala Harris by 2.5 percentage points in Polymarket's election contract after Elon Musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, endorsed him at a rally over the weekend. Trump still trails in one of the states that have, historically, 'called' the election.

“As you can see, I am not just MAGA, I am Dark MAGA,” Musk said on stage at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, the site of the first assassination attempt on Trump in July. “The other side wants to take away your freedom of speech. They want to take away your right to bear arms. They want to take away your right to vote."

Musk also endorsed prediction markets, calling them more accurate than polls.

Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line. https://t.co/WrsqZ2z8pp

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 7, 2024

While Trump leads in the national presidential election poll, he trails in a number of swing states.

A Polymarket contract asking if Trump will win every swing state gives only a 19% chance of that happening. That said, a contract asking if Harris will do the same puts her chances at the same level.

Critically for the Republicans, Trump trails in Nevada based on a Polymarket contract. According to data compiled by not-for-profit, nonpartisan civic initiative USAFacts, the state has been predictive of the overall election result in eight of the last nine contests.

Data from Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin election aggregator shows that Democrats have strengthened their hold on Nevada over the last month.

Nevada was one of the states where Robert F. Kennedy Jr polled highest, and a recent Wall Street Journal report profiled some of his supporters who are now voting for Trump, albeit reluctantly.

But not all are marking their ballots for a Republican. A number of former RFK supporters profiled by the Journal are so dissatisfied with the major party options, particularly after Kennedy’s exit, that they’re considering abstaining from voting altogether.

On the other hand, the historical elections data aggregated by USAFacts says that Ohio is another state that typically 'calls' the election. Republicans lead there with 90%, according to Polymarket, which suggests this race for the White House might be one of the most contested ones in history.