Institutional Investors Position for Bitcoin Volatility Into the U.S. Election

• A "huge uptick" in call option buying on CME bitcoin futures signals "very bullish positioning" into the election, Joshua Lim of Arbelos Markets said.
• Crypto credit markets also saw rising borrowing leading into the election expecting price volatility, Maple Finance co-founder Sidney Powell said.

The U.S. elections coming up next week are anticipated to be a major catalyst for cryptocurrency markets, and institutions are positioning for a spur of volatility in bitcoin {{BTC}} prices, observers told CoinDesk.

Short-term borrowing rates on institutional crypto lending markets have been rising as the November 5 presidential election approaches, Sidney Powell, co-founder of crypto lending venue Maple Finance, said in an interview with CoinDesk.

"We're seeing more inbound requests for borrowing from some of the larger institutions," Powell said. "Demand for larger-ticket loans and borrowing against open trade credit has increased significantly."

These players "are anticipating there might be some volatility to the upside and a run-up in asset prices," Powell added.

Those institutions typically include prime brokerage firms and over-the-counter desks, who likely build up inventory to provide margins to other clients and peers, or position themselves to go long with leverage into a potential bull market, he explained.

Positioning on derivatives markets also suggests that institutions are allocating to crypto ahead of the elections.

The options on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) bitcoin futures market, the favored venue for sophisticated, traditional institutional participants, experienced some of its busiest days recently, said Joshua Lim, co-founder of principal crypto broker Arbelos Markets.

1/ CME Bitcoin options just experienced some of its largest volume days ever, ahead of the US election

two very notable prints happened in the last wk: pic.twitter.com/k3dUkPyrFj

— Joshua Lim (@joshua_j_lim) October 30, 2024

"We're seeing a huge uptick in CME call buying into the election, including some of the largest ever prints on the exchange," Lim told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.

Over $350 million notional value of November calls traded through the past week, with a breakeven price of around $79,300 at the end of November expiry, meaning that these traders anticipate to profit from rising BTC prices next month, he said.

"Very bullish positioning into the election," Lim added. "It seems clear that funds dedicated to crypto strategies continue to grow as the asset class matures."